Motto: "We cannot follow the path, where at one point we are going to apply some principles and at another some other ones". Russian President V. Putin

"If Kosovo is recognized, Russia will have to display its will and extend the scenario onto Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno Karabakh". Director of the Institute of CIS Countries, member of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and "Relations with Fellow Countrymen", K. Zatulin

"If the decision on Kosovo does not become a universal model applicable towards other unrecognized states, this will destabilize the situation in the conflict zones of the former Soviet Union". Director of the Political Research Institute, member of the Russian Public Chamber, S. Markov

Introduction

One of the issues that are most discussed among the expert community and mass media at the moment is the recognition of Kosovo independency by the international community that will take place in the nearest future and that it may somehow influence the process of settling the "frozen" conflicts on the Post-Soviet area. That is why we find it relevant and appropriate to outline the antithesis of the cases of Kosovo and Transnistria.

KOSOVO

The origins of Kosovo and Transnistrian separatism have different bases and are easy to distinguish at contrasting the contents.

The case of Kosovo is based on an extremely pronounced ethnic conflict, in which exceedingly nationalistic Serbs forced the maltreated Kosovars of Albanian origin leave their motherland by exercising armed pressure accompanied by violence and bloodshed. According the official data of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the number of Kosovars under the threat of genocide trying to save their lives from active Serbian forces by fleeing Kosovo exceeded 1 million (!) people. The extraordinary situation made the countries of the European Union and the USA resort to extreme measures: under the attack of the NATO air force, the subdivisions of the Serbian army terrorizing the region had to leave it, and the administration of Kosovo was entrusted to the UNMIK international administration.

Almost 7 years have passed from the moment of punishing the aggressor. Kosovars have been able to carry out a series of reforms since, and this allows considering Kosovo a zone that does not generate instability and threat to security anymore. There is the largest NATO base in Europe, Bondsteel, the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) has been dismissed, and the main democratic institutes have started their work. Tolerance problems and the high level of xenophobia are caused solely by the brutal attitude of the old Serbian authorities (the one million of refugees who returned to their home country did not find their homes, which had been simply destroyed (!) and continuous provocations on the part of Serbian special services. The most eloquent example of the latter is the incident that took place at the fifth anniversary of Kosovo liberation: while all the Albanian Kosovars were celebrating this special (without exaggeration) occasion, the Serbs of Kosovo baited two Albanian children to death. The reaction - massive disturbances towards Serbs - followed without delay. The provocation attained its goal - the world saw "the barbarity of the Albanians and the lack of democracy in Kosovo".

It has to be mentioned that the majority of Serbs who have left Kosovo do not come back. At the same time, there is no guarantee that they are not going to revenge once they do come back, especially since the hysteria and psychosis concerning the "lost relic" is still being boosted in Serbia (one of the main Serbian sayings is: "We shall lay our heads, but not ever Kosovo"). On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine that Kosovars who remember not only the cruelty of the Serbs, but also the unmotivated humiliation (the abolition by Milosevic of Kosovo autonomy in 1989) will agree even to the greatest ever possible form of autonomy (federation, confederation, etc.). Maybe, only those who do not pray on the NATO and the USA (the central avenue in Pristine is called after Bill Clinton; there is NATO aviation on billboards). Because even under the confederative structure that no one has ever proposed to them, they will have to agree to being guarded by the Serbian army, that is, the same people that were killing them in 1999 and demolished their houses afterwards.

It is also worth mentioning that Serbia, unlike the EU membership that it can get in the mid-term prospect, will never become a NATO member, and the presence of the NATO base on its territory will be contributing to a permanent boost of nationalism (it is present even today), as well as the consolidation of marginal revanchist parties. Kosovo has to get and it will do a full international acknowledgement.

Characterizing the case of Kosovo, it is worth mentioning the widespread misconception of the fact that the conflict has a religious underlying motive besides the ethnic one. Although Kosovars practice Islam, it does not prevent them from admiring the NATO (see above), besides they have the traditional for the Balkans "soft" version that has nothing to do with vahhabism. We have to understand that the root of the problems of Kosovo that have lasted for quite a period of time lies solely in the nationalism of the Serbs.

TRANSNISTRIA

Russia's interest in the territory of the present Republic of Moldova was shown at the times of Peter I and defined by the end of the XVIII century. Prince Potemkin personally coordinated the implementation of the special project called "The Dacia Province of the Russian Empire" that was to include practically the whole modern Romania and the Republic of Moldova, including Transnistria. The history keeps a curious fact - Potemkin died (by the way, he died in the Transnistrian town of Dubasari) while looking for the hundredth time at the red satin pillow, on which "The Dacia Province" was outlined in brilliants (!). But if this term invented by Russians was not adequate, within 1812 - 1836, a very interesting term that could be called for in the nearest future was used in Russia as regards the modern Transnistria - the Transnistrian Bessarabia.

Unlike the origin of the Kosovo conflict that has an ethnic base, the origin of the Transnistrian conflict is different since it has an exclusively political base. The appearance of the "Moldovan Transnistrian Republic" became possible as a result of a series of special actions carried out by the imperial centre in Moscow for the attainment of their specific goals. The most important actions were:

1. Creation of a permanently unstable zone (is a part of the methodology called the controlled chaos concept). It enables causing tension on a certain territory, thus, creating possibilities for influencing states and international structures. The area of the region depends on the geo-political, geo-strategic, and geo-economic significance of the controlled region on the one hand, and on the cultural and information level typical for the region on the other.

2. Creation of serious obstacles in the implementation of the concept of the unification of Romania and the Bessarabian and Transnistrian region (the Eastern Romanian space). Any version of such a concept stipulates the liquidation of the Russian military presence. Besides the de facto outdated but still important considerations of the military and strategic nature, the loss of control over the Bessarabian and Transnistrian region, in the eyes of the considerable Russian military and political establishment, means a kind of "official lowering of the flag" of Russia as a super-power in the so-called Eurasian conception of this term followed by latter.

3. Creation of a territory that does not comply with the internationally acknowledged norms and criteria, thus, allowing benefiting from certain economic advantages and providing the possibility to carry out different illegal special operations.

An appropriate background was necessary in order to create the Transnistrian enclave, and it was created by means of the controlled Chisinau elite and the corresponding "specialists" landed in Tiraspol. The provocations of 1989-1992 that generated the armed conflict led to the creation of the necessary situation. Within the last 15 years, a consistent policy of population "zombification" has been carried out on the Transnistrian territory, which has led to the appearance of a phantom called "the opinion and will of the Transnistrian people" the leaders of the puppet administration refer to.

There is no need to describe in detail the essence of the criminal project set by the Russian secret services in the eastern region of the Republic of Moldova, everybody knows this very well. It is more important to emphasize the outrageous fact of the actual occupation of a part of a sovereign state - member of the UN and the Council of Europe by the citizens that are in the active service in the Russian army and special services.

The imitation of the creation of institutes typical for democratic countries in Transnistria could be hilarious if the real situation in the field of the rights and freedoms of citizens in this practically annexed to Russia part of the Republic of Moldova was not so serious. A typical example: Smirnov has decided to establish an institute of the commissioner for human rights. The attitude towards this cheap farce cannot be different than if, for example, Saddam Hussein or Milosevic have claimed to do so, the only difference being that the Smirnov-Antyufeev regime is fully controlled by Moscow.

If there had been UN administration and not the criminal regime on the Transnistrian territory not for 7 like in Kosovo but at least for 2 years, if instead of the "protectorate" of Russian military forces there was an international mission of military observers, and if there were no obstacles to the free circulation of print and electronic media, then, by the end of the period, the supporters of the Smirnov-Antyufeev regime among the Transnistrian people would not be more numerous than the Kosovars wishing to live in Serbia.

DO RUSSIANS WANT A WAR?

The settlement of the Transnistrian conflict depends on the position of Russia, which is de facto controlling the region. This fact has been acknowledged, including by the supreme European court - the European Court of Human Rights. Provided the change of the format of peace-keeping forces in Transnistria, the correct raising of the matter within the UN, and the replacement of the format of peace-keeping forces introducing the mission of international military and civil observers this "frozen" conflict will be settled in a rather short period of time.

It is necessary to create an institute of Transnistrian international civil administration in the Republic of Moldova that would make it possible to establish the rules of the game aiming at giving Transnistria a status adequate to the needs of the citizens who live in the region and the practical implementation of the "3D" strategy (Democratization, Demilitarization, and Decriminalization). After one, two years at the most, of functioning in the Republic of Moldova, the main part of the tasks of the Transnistrian international civil administration, including the "dezombification" of the population of the region, will be accomplished and the citizens living on the territory will be ready to share the idea of being citizens of the European Union. Such an evolution of events will be acknowledged by the great capital of the Republic of Moldova (including the Transnistrian one). At the same time, it is important to pass the law on financial amnesty - it will be quite organic because the period of the initial capital accumulation has had its specificity, and nowadays such capital can bring significant benefits to the republic. Such a law must cover the enterprises, the beneficiary owners of which are citizens of the Republic of Moldova and citizens living on the territory of the RM as of August 26, 1991. The Russians will not fight for the enterprises in the region occupied by force with the violation of the international law. The illegality of their ownership will be easily proven by the international arbitrage. At the same time, they will receive the right to participate in the privatization on the legal grounds as stipulated by the law in force of the RM. It is obvious that the stakeholders in this frozen conflict realize perfectly well that the "Transnistrian region of the Russian Federation" has the same chances to attain its goals as "the Dacia Province of the Russian Empire" at the time. And if the Russian President considers claims to support this conception, he might as well order the pillow with brilliants right away.

Conclusion De Gaulle, despite the severe counter-action of the powerful French elite, found the courage to leave Algeria considered then by the French military and political establishment a part of their country. But De Gaulle's actions (concerning Algeria) were the actions of a responsible president, were determined by the need to conduct a policy that would resound with the processes going on in the world and, consequently, were successful. Vladimir Putin must realize that the actions that do not correspond to the globalization processes create a negative balance that is likely to emerge sooner or later and that the history is going to dot the "i's" and cross the "t's". We should not forget that, in our world, in the conditions of globalization, the development tendencies that correspond to the basic principles of the latter are brought about. The creation of the Euro-Atlantic space in the Black Sea region and the end of the period of existence of "unrecognized states" related to it is the result of the globalization processes that put everything in order and take place not otherwise, but… on the will of God.

Boris ASAROV is the President of the Transnistrian association "Pro Europa"