The group of experts from the international census observation Mission to the Republic of Moldova welcomed publication, by the National Statistics Bureau, of the new set of preliminary data regarding the 2004 population census, according to the census' data publication schedule.

In a press statement broadcasted on Wednesday, May 18, the group of experts reiterated its earlier conclusions, made on the grounds of reports of teams of international observers, that "the census had been generally conducted in a professional manner", but consider that "there were a few topics in the census that were potentially more problematic".

Thus, the expert group has noted that the National Bureau of Statistics has indicated in its press release that the total population size of the country is 3,388,071. The group considers that that figure may actually be somewhat higher than the real population size of the country because that figure includes at least some Moldovans who had been living abroad over one year at the time of the census and who had been enumerated in the census. According to the international standards for censuses, these individuals should not have been included in the count of the total population size of the country, and therefore the total population estimated in the census would be somewhat smaller if the international census standards had been fully complied with in this regard. However, it should also be noted that some undercount of the population can also be expected in any census operations, and that this might reduce the effect of the above-mentioned overcount.

The expert group concluded that the items in the questionnaire dealing with nationality and language proved to be the most sensitive ones, particularly with reference to the recording of responses to these questions as being "Moldovan" or "Romanian", and therefore it concluded that special care would need to be taken in using them. This was because although reports from the field had showed that a large proportion of respondents had spontaneously provided answers to these questions, seven of the ten teams of observers had reported cases where enumerators encouraged respondents to declare that they were Moldovan rather than Romanian. Moreover, the reports from the field also showed that even within the same family there often seemed to be some confusion about these terms. Since problems of this type had been reported by the teams of observers in many different parts of the country, and in fairly large number, the expert group concluded that special care would be required by the National Statistics Bureau to enable it to assess the quality of the data on nationality/ethnicity.

The data showing the composition of the population by nationality/ethnicity that the National Statistics Bureau released today provides the preliminary counts that were obtained from the census for this topic, but it does not provide any assessment of the overall quality of the data or whether the results obtained for some of the groups might be somewhat inflated or deflated. The Expert Group strongly recommends that the National Bureau of Statistics proceed and carry out such an assessment as part of its overall evaluation of the census, after the final results from the census are released. Such evaluation studies are carried out routinely by national statistical offices after all censuses, and it is particularly important that they be carried out in cases like this where there appears to be reason to believe that greater caution should be exercised by all users in interpreting and using the data for some of the census topics.

For its part, the expert group will also attempt to assess the data by nationality/ethnicity in the further stages of its work, as well as the data for some other sensitive topics. It should be noted, however, that any assessments that will be carried out by the expert group cannot replace the ones that the National Statistics Bureau will be conducting, for those assessments and evaluations are part of the National Bureau of Statistics's regular statistical work programme. However, to the extent that resources available to it will permit, the Expert Group remains willing to advise and assist the National Bureau of Statistics in carrying out the required types of assessments.

The expert group has not yet completed its work on the assessment of the census as a whole. It has started its work by checking the data on the total population counts, and it has also checked a sample of the questionnaires, and no irregularities have been found. The expert group will shortly turn its attention to checking the data processing procedures, and towards the end of the project it will produce its final report, AP FLUX also informs.