The Republic of Moldova seems to have all chances to become the world champion by the level of trade deficit, according to Dr. Alexander Kuliuk of Harvard University.

In his analytical study of economic situation in Moldova, the expert presented a calculation of trade deficit which this republic may achieve by the end of 2006, and compared his findings with the figures received by the Economist Intelligence Unit. The results of the two computations turned out to be very much alike.

According to the EIU, Moldova's gross domestic product will constitute US$3.3 billion (with Kuliuk - US$3.25 billion) this year, and the trade deficit will climb up to US$1.63 billion (US$1.67 bln), or will make 49.5% GDP (51.3%).

The EUI chart, drawn for 10 countries having the greatest trade deficits against their GDPs, indicated that Moldova was on the 9th place in the world by that indicator in 2005, then got up to the 5th place in 2005, and, judging by the EIU forecast, is going to occupy the 2nd place this year, yielding only to Sao Tome e Principe, having 50.5%. But as this Western African island nation has a population of under 1 million, it will not be included into the general rating of countries.

For correctness' sake, Dr. Kuliuk presented an alternative calculation of trade/GDP deficit made with an account of financial incomings from gastarbeiters covering nearly three-quarters of the trade deficit. So with an account of the gastarbeiters' official remittances only, the Moldova's deficit is going to be 'only' about US$500, i.e. 15% of the GDP (with EIU - 17%). Alexander Kuliuk believes this figure can well place Moldova on the 7th-8th place in the world rating, where, for instance, the U.S.A. has 6%.

The research author underscores that with an account of Moldovan gastarbeiters' unofficial financial incomings, estimated at some US$400 million a year, Moldova may have even a positive trade balance. One of the proofs to this is the constantly growing hard-currency reserve of the National Bank of Moldova. However, such a conclusion can be made only by an accountant, not an economist, remarks Dr. Kuliuk.

The researcher's conclusion is as follows: in recent years, the structure of Moldova's external income has changed dramatically, namely exports have shrunk, while remittances from abroad are growing breathtakingly, which makes this republic the only nation in the whole of Eurasia whose gastarbeiters bring more means home than the country's exports. In this, only 2 world nations are, so far, able to offer rivalry to Moldova - Haiti and the Kingdom of Tonga.